By L. EDGAR PRINA
Editor Emeritus
"Posture:
the way things stand; condition with respect to circumstances; an official stand or
position."
Webster's New World Dictionary
Each year, the Department of the Navy
(DON) prepares a "posture statement" to educate Congress and the American people
about the Navy-Marine Corps team's mission, direction for the future, and the priorities
that guide its decision making.
The 1999 statement--signed by the
secretary of the Navy, the chief of naval operations, and the commandant of the Marine
Corps--asserts that it "portrays the Navy-Marine Corps team of the 21st
century."
The 67-page statement does not, of
course, provide a picture of the next hundred years, but presents a view, rather, of where
the Department of the Navy is heading in the early part of the 21st century from the
vantage point of the last year of the 20th.
Secretary Richard Danzig, Adm. Jay L.
Johnson, and Gen. Charles C. Krulak see the trends of the last decade or so carrying over,
perhaps at an accelerated pace, in the years ahead. Certainly some of the ships and
aircraft currently under construction or development could still be in active service
until 2050 or beyond.
Calling the international environment
today more complex than at any previous time in America's history, the statement of the
three leaders says: "The number and diverse nature of nations, organizations, and
other entities vying for international influence continues to grow. At the same time, the
global economy is increasingly interdependent. Although this offers the promise of greater
prosperity for the United States, it also further ties the security and well-being of
Americans to events beyond our borders.
"Incidents and crises once
considered peripheral to U.S. security--the spread of ethnic and religious conflict, the
breakdown of law and order abroad, or the disruption of trade in distant regions--now
threaten our citizens and our interests."
The three service leaders added, though,
that a fundamental restructuring of global economies, governments, and beliefs presents
new opportunities for a globally engaged United States, along with its friends and allies,
to advance America's long-term interests while promoting stability in critical areas.
This is the kind of world in which the
Navy and Marine Corps would be expected to play an increasingly important role, given
their forward presence with combat-ready forces. The caveat here is that Washington must
not overextend the nation's military forces by trying to act as the world's policeman. To
do so would feed isolationist sentiments that lie just beneath the surface in America.
In the view of the Navy Department's
leadership, today's smaller fleet faces "broad and frequent dangers."
Small-scale conflicts and factional disputes are now raging in at least 25 countries, they
noted in the posture statement. "Threats to U.S. lives, property, and interests are
increasing worldwide and potential threats to the U.S. homeland are likely to become an
uncomfortable reality."
The importance of the Navy and Marine
Corps to the nation's security and well-being goes beyond the deterrence value of the
combat power of the sea services. As the statement points out, America's economic vitality
is becoming more and more dependent upon the stability and growth of the global economy.
"Thus ... the nation's fundamental
interests are increasingly linked to two objectives: (1) the promotion of peace and
stability; and (2) the growth of democracies and market economies," it asserts.
"Forward-presence naval forces, especially when enhanced by multiagency, joint, or
allied operations, have a fundamental capacity to accomplish both of these 21st-century
objectives."
Challenges and
Constraints
Under the daunting heading
"Challenges and Solutions for the 21st Century," the statement points out that,
because of constrained budgets, it is difficult to balance the need to sustain operational
readiness with the modernization necessary to ensure the availability of enough properly
equipped forces to meet future requirements and threats.
"Although deployed readiness remains
satisfactory, the key readiness indices of our nondeployed forces are worsening, thus
posing risks for the future," it says. Nondeployed readiness is now currently funded
at levels which minimize flexibility and hamper the ability of our assets to surge quickly
in the event of a major theater war."
The force structure needed to carry out
the missions assigned to the Navy-Marine Corps team is identified in the posture statement
as follows: Three active Marine Expeditionary Forces and one reserve division, air wing,
and force service support group, and a fleet of at least 300 ships, including 12 aircraft
carriers, 10 active air wings and one reserve air wing, 12 amphibious ready groups (ARGs),
50 attack submarines, 14 ballistic-missile submarines armed with Trident II/D5 weapons,
116 surface combatants (108 active and eight reserve force ships), and 16 mine warfare
ships.
"In order to sustain these force
levels beyond the Future Years Defense Plan (FYDP), the Navy must achieve a building rate
of eight to 10 ships per year," the three leaders asserted.
Under the Clinton administration's latest
six-year defense budget plan, which begins with FY 2000, construction of 47 new ships
would be funded, or eight more than had been originally projected. The add-ons include one
Virginia-class attack submarine, one DD-21 land-attack destroyer, two command ships, three
T-ADC(X) advanced-design cargo ships, and one LHD amphibious assault ship.
Six new ships would be funded in FY 2000,
eight more in each of the next four years, and nine in FY 2005.
Push-Pull on People
Problems
The posture statement takes serious note
of the recruitment and retention problems the Navy now faces. The Marine Corps is meeting
its goals in both areas, but the Navy fell 7,000 enlistees short in FY 1998 and has severe
retention problems in its mid-level officer ranks.
The Navy's end strength at the beginning
of FY 1999 was 381,502 active and 94,294 reserve personnel. Marines numbered 173,142
active-duty and 40,842 reserve Marines.
"Increasing college attendance,
historically low unemployment, and prolonged economic growth all combine to compete with
naval recruiters for the limited pool of qualified enlistees," the statement points
out. In addition, it continues, "Decreasing quality of life, family separation, pay
disparities with the civilian community, lower advancement opportunity, erosion of other
benefits, and a strong civilian economy adversely affect retention of Navy and Marine
Corps personnel."
The triad of a 4.8 percent
across-the-board pay raise, selective bonuses, and a retirement pay increase (from 40
percent to 50 percent of base pay after 20 years service) is expected to be approved by
Congress this year. That should help both recruitment and retention.
Pilot retention, which declined to 32
percent in FY 1998 from 39 percent in FY 1997, is an area of particular concern to the
Navy. "This trend is expected to continue for the foreseeable future. ... Pilot
retention already falls 35 percent short of the aggregate level required to fill critical
department-head and flight-leader positions," the statement warns. The problem with
mid-level officers remains the greatest challenge, it adds, but there also has been an
increase in resignations of more senior aviators, particularly because of intense
competition from private industry.
The submarine and surface warfare officer
communities also are experiencing serious retention shortfalls, the statement says, and
resignations from the Naval Special Warfare community (SEALs) have risen dramatically
since 1996.
Downward Trends in
Resources, Morale
Making a strong case for increased
resources, the posture statement notes that the Navy's total obligational (budget)
authority decreased by 40 percent (in constant 1998 dollars) in the 10 years since 1988.
"Coincident with this decrease was a marked increase in forward presence and
contingency operations," it says--and points out that, "owing to the unique
capabilities naval forces bring to a turbulent post-Cold War world, the peacetime
Navy-Marine Corps team has never been busier."
As the statement asserts, the
acceleration in operational activity greatly affects quality of life and fleet morale.
"To make up for resource shortfalls, our Sailors work harder and longer to
compensate," it says. "Not only does this prevent them from spending ... needed
and well-deserved time with their families, it also stresses them both mentally and
physically at a time when they should be focused on preparing for deployment."
The Marine Corps' high operational tempo
also comes at the expense of lower investments in the USMC's modernization,
infrastructure, and quality-of-life accounts.
The Corps' unfunded maintenance and
repair backlog now stands at $700 million, and the goal of reducing it to $100 million by
2010 does not appear to be achievable under current and prospective budget projections.
The posture statement discloses that Marine aviation assets "saw a 49 percent rise in
average cost per flight hour during the last three fiscal years"--this is despite
significantly reduced fuel costs.
New SSN, CVN Capabilities
In the statement's shipbuilding section,
the Navy Department leadership notes the following state-of-the-art advances that have
been designed into the new Virginia-class nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs):
enhanced acoustic and nonacoustic stealth features, integrated combat systems, fiber-optic
periscopes, long-range vertical-launch Tomahawk cruise missiles, and a simplified nuclear
propulsion plant with a life-of-the-ship reactor core.
The advanced-technology systems funded
for the first four Virginia hulls will improve their organic mine-reconnaissance,
weapons-launch capacity, and target-detection capabilities, particularly in littoral
environments.
Discussing aircraft carrier technology,
the statement says that the CVN 77, a transition ship to the CVNX next-generation class of
carriers, will be fitted with a new integrated combat system with multifunction sensor
arrays and additional technologies. "CVNX-1 will have a new nuclear propulsion plant,
an advanced electrical power distribution system, and an electromagnetic aircraft
launching system," the statement continues. "This will provide immediate
life-cycle cost reductions and warfighting improvements."
The DD-21 destroyer is being de-signed
from the keel up to provide support for American forces ashore. The capabilities and
systems targeted for the ship include advanced major-caliber guns, precision weapons,
various signature-reduction (stealth) features, seamless joint interoperability systems,
enhanced survivability, and reduced manning: a crew of only 95 personnel--about 30 percent
of the number assigned to an Arleigh Burke-class Aegis guided-missile destroyer.
High Marks for AAAV,
Super Hornet, and Osprey
The Navy Department leaders are pleased
with the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet strike fighter acquisition program, asserting that it is
both within budget and on schedule, and has met or exceeded all performance parameters.
The aircraft will begin operational evaluation in May. (In reply to a question from Sen.
Charles Robb (D-Va.) at a Senate Armed Services Sea Power subcommittee hearing, Danzig
said the Super Hornet has experienced some "normal problems," but added that
"I feel good about this program.")
Danzig, Johnson, and Krulak also are
bullish on the Advanced Amphibious Assault Vehicle (AAAV) and the MV-22 Osprey tiltrotor
aircraft, two programs of special importance to the Marine Corps.
The AAAV, which has been under
development much longer than originally projected, is now expected to reach IOC (initial
operating capability) by 2006; the IOC for the Osprey is 2001.
The New World
The posture statement notes that the Navy
has been investing most of its resources in five specific warfare areas: network-centric
warfare (NCW), land attack, theater ballistic missile defense, mine warfare, and
antisubmarine warfare.
The leaders appear to be especially
enthusiastic about the potential of NCW. "The culture of a network world society will
make the Navy of the 21st century unrecognizable from today's," they assert.
"Central to every aspect of the
Navy's future operations, NCW derives its power from the reliable and ubiquitous
networking of well-informed, geographically dispersed forces. A multisensor information
grid will provide all commanders access to essential data [and to] sensor and
command-and-control systems and weapons."
The Navy plans to use Super Hornets,
Joint Strike Fighters, and a variant of the Tomahawk land-attack missile to deliver
long-range strikes in the early years of the 21st century. It hopes thereby to achieve the
benefits of massed fire without the dangers sometimes inherent in the massing of forces.
According to Danzig et al, there is a
"compelling requirement" for an effective forward-deployed theater
ballistic-missile defense (TBMD) system, and the Navy is working hard to provide such a
system to protect U.S. and allied forces, as well as areas of vital national interest. The
Navy also is working on the NTW (Navy Theater Wide) system, which it hopes will be able to
intercept and destroy medium- and longer-range theater ballistic missiles.
In the area of mine warfare, the Navy is
determined to equip its carrier battle groups and amphibious ready groups with the systems
needed to give them their own organic mine-hunting and mine-clearance capabilities.
"Instead of waiting for dedicated
mine-warfare assets to arrive, the [on-scene] commander will have mine-detection and
-avoidance systems at his disposal," the statement says. "The ultimate goal of
deploying organic mine warfare systems is to extend maritime domination into the littorals
by minimizing the effectiveness of the most asymmetric and prevalent sea threat there, the
sea mine."
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