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By OTTO KREISHER
Otto
Kreisher is the national security reporter for Copley News Service.
Looking ahead 20
years, the Coast Guard sees a world in which growing demographic,
economic, and environmental pressures on America's maritime regions and
resources will severely challenge the multimission service's ability to
sustain its Semper Paratus (Always Prepared) tradition.
"More than
ever, America will call upon the Coast Guard to protect lives and serve
the national interests on the high seas, along the nation's maritime
borders and coasts, and in the inland waterways. Mindful of these
responsibilities, the service has charted its course and embarked on an
ambitious plan to renew assets and increase capabilities," the Coast
Guard declares in its vision statement.
The statement,
called Coast Guard 2020, envisions a future in which the demands on
it will soar, but the financial, human, and material resources available
to meet those demands will remain constrained. The document prescribes the
use of revolutionary technologies and innovative concepts as one way to
bridge the gap between resources and requirements.
"Profound
advances in information and communications technologies will expand the
ability to project maritime presence, to analyze, interpret, and integrate
data, and to coordinate re-sponse to emergencies and other
contingencies," it says at one point.
But the vision
statement later declares: "In the final analysis--it will be the
Coast Guard's men and women--shaped by professionalism, leadership, and
selfless humanitarian service--who will transform this vision into
reality."
Coast Guard
2020 (CG2020) grew out of a series of studies conducted by the
Coast Guard's Office of Strategic Analysis with the help of the Center for
Naval Analyses, said Capt. Joel Whitehead, chief of the analysis office.
Because of the
demands on them, Coast Guard personnel and leaders usually are
"crunched for time" and can only rarely focus on concerns beyond
next month or next year, Whitehead said. The vision document "was
designed to get the leadership thinking way ahead," he said.
Direction
and Continuity
The vision
statement was published last year under then-commandant Adm. Robert E.
Kramek, with considerable input from his successor, Adm. James M. Loy,
Whitehead said. Loy reissued it this year without change, reaffirming
"both the continuity of Coast Guard leadership and the role of Coast
Guard 2020 in providing direction for that leadership," Loy said.
The statement should be read by all Coast Guard personnel, he said,
"for it is the Coast Guard's vision document, providing guidance on
how we will move into the future while maintaining our heritage as a
military, multimission, maritime service.
"It
challenges the nation and the Coast Guard to support the people and
programs that will enable us to remain Semper Paratus--Always Ready--to
serve America," Loy said.
In its concluding
chapter the vision document notes that a number of "critical
decisions" confront the Coast Guard "as it prepares for a new
century of service to America.
"Coast
Guard 2020 provides the vision and framework to make the hard
decisions necessary to ensure that the Coast Guard remains ready for
today's missions and tasks, even as the service prepares for tomorrow's
requirements and operations."
The document will
serve as the "cornerstone for the service's strategic planning and
budgeting process and ... will mold the Coast Guard's capital acquisition
plan," it says. It also will provide "the foundation for
programs to attract, train, and retain highly skilled and motivated people
and to design, acquire, and maintain modern cutters, aircraft, and
systems," the publication says.
The statement
sets the stage by taking a hard look at the world the Coast Guard could
confront in 2020. That future presents "challenges and
opportunities," it asserts.
The nation looks
to the new millennium "full of hope and promise," while at the
same time recognizing that "significant challenges, risks, and
uncertainties will undoubtedly accompany the opportunities," it says.
A
Change in Mission Emphasis
The numerous
changes expected early in the new millennium will have particular impact
"on the nation's waterways--inland rivers, ports and harbors, coastal
areas, and offshore maritime regions that serve as arteries for trade,
sources of food and natural resources, playgrounds for recreation, and
national borders," according to CG2020.
It warns that a
"host of transnational dangers--from pollution to illegal immigration
to international terrorism--will continue to tax America's maritime
security, demanding action from a broad spectrum of agencies."
The document also
proudly proclaims that the "key to America's maritime future is the
United States Coast Guard."
Loy told a
friendly audience earlier this year that the next decade could be called
"the Coast Guard decade" because of the mounting demands for its
services. He said that, after analyzing a "number of studies,"
the Coast Guard believes "there will be no major change to its
traditional roles and missions," and predicted that "mission
emphasis will shift based on changing national priorities."
With less threat
of a global conflict in the post-Cold War era, the Coast Guard expects, as
do the nation's other armed services, a greater involvement in
"operations other than war"--i.e., peacekeeping, crisis
response, and counterterrorism. Loy said that national borders will
continue to blur "as novel economic and security relationships
emerge," and that "greater numbers of powerful nonstate actors
... will influence the global community."
Because of the
growth of "sophisticated international criminal cartels that operate
beyond the control of any single state," the vision statement
foresees the creation of "new alliances and ad hoc coalitions"
to combat such threats. "Mass migrations, terrorism, and crime will
continue to spill beyond traditional borders and onto the seaways,"
and the maritime transportation of illegal drugs and of migrants will
increase, according to CG2020.
More
People, Fewer Resources
Much of the
pressure on the maritime regions will occur as a result of an escalating
growth of world population, especially in developing countries. That will
mean "greater demand for transportation of commodities--and increased
consumption of ocean's resources," the document says. The U.S.
population is expected to grow to 320 million by 2020, with the greatest
growth in the coastal areas and particularly in the South and West.
The larger
population's demand for food will clash with greater public sensitivity to
environmental issues, which will prompt protective action to prevent
overuse of oceanic resources.
World fish stocks
"will decline to near extinction if fishing and habitat destruction
continue unabated," the vision statement predicts, and the increased
need for energy will require oil and gas drilling in areas more than 350
miles off U.S. shores and in waters deeper than 2,000 feet.
The growth in
population and the limited resources of Third World countries will spur an
increase in illegal immigration, further tasking the Coast Guard's role as
the nation's maritime law-enforcement agency, according to the vision
statement.
"More than
ever," it predicts, "the United States will require the Coast
Guard's frontline defense against a host of illicit activities,"
including well-financed criminal organizations that "will exploit
porous international borders to smuggle everything from drugs to weapons
of mass destruction.
"If
unchecked, sea-based threats by those contemptuous of laws and
international regulations will inflict significant harm on the
nation," the statement warns.
To combat those
threats, the Coast Guard must promote greater cooperation among other U.S.
federal, regional, state, and local agencies as well as the private sector
and other nations, it says.
But the major
burden will fall on the Coast Guard itself, which will respond with a
combination of traditional practices and new technologies.
"The Coast
Guard has practiced a form of community policing for more than 200 years
and the service has long understood the importance of deterring crime on
the sea by maintaining an active presence," the statement says.
Coast Guard
patrols and inspections will be aided by specialized tracking and
monitoring technologies and an international intelligence network that
will help guide the "rapid surging of enforcement assets."
ISO
Global Solutions
A multimission
system of aircraft, boats, cutters, and command, control, communications,
intelligence, and reconnaissance capabilities will help the Coast Guard
intercept intruders using fast and stealthy vessels and aircraft, the
statement says.
The future also
will put greater pressure on Coast Guard personnel as the "stewards
of the marine environment," it says.
America's waters
and their ecosystems are vital to the nation's health and economy, and,
despite the increasing use of the marine regions, there are greater
expectations for a clean and sustainable environment, the Coast Guard
says.
The service plans
to use its "skilled people and strategically placed units" to
preserve healthy fish stocks and keep domestic waters free of oil,
chemicals, and other pollutants.
The Coast Guard
also will emphasize "preventive strategies" and will seek
comprehensive and global solutions, joining emerging international control
regimes "to ensure [that its] policy objectives are enforceable and
achievable."
Because
government policies affect the global competitiveness of the nation's
maritime industries, the Coast Guard said it plans to "streamline
environmental regulations to ensure fairness, relevance, and minimal
costs, while maximizing protection."
Ultralarge
Increase in Trade
The Coast Guard
sees America becoming increasingly dependent on international trade for
its economic vitality, with "the vast majority" of that trade
transported on the water. It predicts that U.S. maritime trade could
triple by 2020, with the greatest growth in commerce expected with the
Asia-Pacific region and Latin America.
The increase in
trade will result in more "ultralarge, deep-draft, and minimally
crewed ships," as well as increased barge and tow traffic on U.S.
inland and coastal waters, the vision statement says. Included in the
increased maritime traffic will be more oil, hazardous materials, and bulk
commodities, the carriage of which will clash with greater recreational
use of waters, including commercial cruises and pleasure boating.
"Collectively,
this congestion on America's waterways will create a greater need for a
well-integrated intermodal transportation system with close links among
the sea, land, and air components," the statement declares.
The document
calls "a safe, efficient, and environmentally sound maritime
transportation system" vital to the nation's economic strength and
security, but says that existing controls on that system are somewhat
"fragmented."
U.S. global
economic competitiveness, safety, and security "will depend on the
effectiveness of Coast Guard management of seaborne trade." The
service will have to "balance competing demands" on ports and
waterways imposed by commerce, national security, and public health and
safety, the statement says.
Greater
congestion of the nation's waterways will mean additional safety risks,
imposing more challenges on the Coast Guard's role as "lifesaver and
guardian of the sea," it says.
"Safety on
inland and ocean waterways will remain a priority, to save lives and
prevent damage to property, the environment, and the economy."
The risks imposed
by the increased number and size of commercial vessels will be aggravated
by an explosion in recreational boating, including "products whose
popularity belies their danger," the Coast Guard says. To meet these
expectations the service will emphasize prevention by stressing human
factors and working to create strong partnerships with commercial and
recreational users of ports and waterways.
But, because
accidents and man-made and natural disasters still will occur, the
statement says, "preparedness will mean the difference" in lives
saved and property damage reduced.
It also predicts
that "innovative technologies and new operational concepts will
revolutionize" the service's short- and long-term capabilities in
"maritime emergency response."
"Satellites
will relay distress signals within minutes, electronic positioning
devices, satellite-based sensors, and worldwide vessel tracking systems
will make it easier to find those in peril," it says.
Peacetime
Competencies, Complementary Teamwork
The statement
also sees the Coast Guard retaining its historic role as one of America's
armed services by performing military roles "that build on peacetime
competencies and that complement the capabilities of the Navy-Marine Corps
team."
The military
missions the Coast Guard will perform include maritime intercept, vessel
escort, the emergency evacuation of U.S. nationals, the protection of
high-value assets, and the use of harbor security units to guard U.S. and
foreign ports needed for the mobilization of military forces.
A key factor in
translating the Coast Guard's vision into reality will be the service's
long-range capital-acquisition plan. That plan centers on a bold
procurement concept called "Deepwater," which seeks to design,
develop, build, and deploy a high-tech system of systems to carry out the
service's missions in deepwater areas of the ocean--i.e., more than 50
miles from the U.S. coasts.
Currently, three
teams of contractors are working on Deepwater conceptual and functional
designs, which are to be presented in April 2001.
Instead of asking
for specific platforms, the Coast Guard said, it will use a
"mission-based performance" acquisition strategy that leaves it
to the contractor teams to decide what assets are needed to perform the
deepwater missions specified by the Coast Guard.
Those assets are
expected to include a frigate-sized ship--informally called the national
security cutter--as well as one or more new aircraft and a variety of
advanced-technology sensors and C3 (command, control, and communications)
systems, Coast Guard officials said.
The key goals of
the program are to improve operational effectiveness and lower life-cycle
costs. Those goals, if met, will allow the Coast Guard to meet the growing
challenges of the future with constrained resources, said Capt. Craig
Schnappinger, manager of the Deepwater project. |
