The question is not if, but when.
Sooner or later, the United States will
face another major naval/military challenge threatening this nation's political and
economic interests overseas, and possibly endangering the peace and stability of the
entire world. When it happens, we will have little or no warning, and we will almost
assuredly not be as ready as we should be.
Just as we were not ready, after almost
three years of fighting in Europe, for World War I. Even less ready for World War II.
Totally unprepared for North Korea's attack on South Korea on 25 June 1950. Taken
repeatedly by surprise throughout the Cold War--the suppression of Hungary in 1956, the
Cuban Missile Crisis, and the building of the Berlin Wall. We were not ready for the 1968
Tet Offensive in Vietnam. Or for the Iranian hostage crisis, the bombing of the U.S.
Marine barracks in Lebanon, and Tienanmen Square.
Even when the end result was to our
advantage, we were unprepared. We did not foresee the fall of the Berlin Wall. Or
the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact and the collapse of the Soviet Union.
The surprises continued even in the
post-Cold War era. Without warning, and without provocation, Iraqi forces invaded Kuwait
on 2 August 1990, and the whole world was taken by surprise. We and our coalition allies
quickly, clearly, and decisively won the Gulf War. Just as clearly, though--and no matter
what the White House says, the State Department says, or the Pentagon says--Saddam Hussein
has been winning, not the peace, but the aftermath of the war. He flaunts us and taunts
us, and our response is to knock out an Iraqi radar site or two. Underwhelming force, in
other words.
Add to all of the preceding Somalia,
Bosnia, and now Kosovo. And two additional surprises: the almost simultaneous bombings
last August of the U.S. embassies in Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania, and Nairobi, Kenya; and the
earlier bombing of New York City's World Trade Center (on 26 February 1993). Even today
very few Americans realize that, were it not for the ineptness of the terrorists
themselves, the Trade Center bombing could have killed more Americans than were killed in
battle in the Korean War and Vietnam War combined. Innocent civilians.
But no more innocent than the fine young
men and women who serve in America's armed forces throughout the world. Our sons and
daughters. They have never failed us--but we, far too often, have failed them. They
were not responsible for all of these surprises, or for our national unpreparedness, but
it was their lives on the line when, in each instance, we finally recovered our national
will, our resolve, and went into battle.
America's men and women in uniform also
do not set the rules of engagement. We do--through America's elected leaders in the
White House and on Capitol Hill. In World War II those rules were clear: Win! Defeat Nazi
Germany and Imperial Japan. The results were equally clear--unconditional surrender by
both Axis powers.
Ever since then we have pulled our
punches--in Korea, in Vietnam, and in the Gulf War. A strategy of "graduated
escalation"; so-called "tit for tat" tactics. A gullible, pathetic, and
self-defeating preference, almost always, for meaningless negotiations rather than
effective military action. Today, the first and only rule of engagement is not
"Win," but "Take no action that could cause political difficulties at
home."
Tragically, this apathy and moral as well
as mental confusion at the top has been compounded by an unwillingness even to be prepared
for war. For the last 14 years we have demonstrated our desire for peace by consistently,
and massively, underfunding and underpaying the nation's armed forces--overworking them at
the same time. We have cut the procurement and acquisition accounts, research and
development, readiness and training, and military construction. The president's proposed
future-years defense plan promises sustained increases in defense spending, but provides
only a token add-on for fiscal year 2000, the only year that really counts. Almost all of
the significant increases are in the outyears. On someone else's watch. Which means it may
never happen.
Meanwhile, our forward-deployed forces
continue to do their job as best they can, but without enough of the ships, aircraft,
weapon systems, and spare parts they need to carry out all of the missions they have been
assigned. This is not, as is so often claimed--by our senior military leaders as well as
by their civilian overseers--an "acceptable degree of risk." It is culpable
neglect.
There will eventually be a day of
reckoning. It could be along the Demilitarized Zone in Korea, in Kosovo or Bosnia, or in
the Taiwan Straits. It could take the form of more bombings of U.S. embassies overseas. Or
an outbreak of terrorist attacks here at home--in downtown Chicago, or San Francisco, New
York City again, or even Washington, D.C. The next time--and there will be a next
time--it might include weapons of mass destruction. Only one thing is certain: It will
be at a time and in a place not of our own choosing.
The question is not if, but when.
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