Russia’s Recent Invasion of Ukraine Has Created a Supply Chain Crisis
William J. Fuschillo
April 2022
Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine last month was a striking blow against both the liberal democratic order of the West as well as the principles it has sought to promote since the conclusion of WW2. The Russian’s president’s actions are not unprecedented in the former Soviet Bloc, but have reminded the United States and European powers of the geopolitical importance of their alliance. The international community has responded accordingly by freezing the assets of Russian oligarchs and cutting economic ties. The fiscal implications of Western sanctions cannot be overstated; the ruble depreciated by upwards of thirty percent by the last day of February and the Moscow equity exchange market was forced to halt trade. News from the frontlines has also been deflating for the Kremlin; Ukraine has endured hundreds of missile strikes as well as thousands of casualties while suffering the loss of only one city.
Ukrainian officials confirm that the city of Khearson has seen Russian forces take over government buildings as well as shortages in food, water, and electricity. Unfortunately, Khearson plays a critical role in international commerce due to its proximity to the Black Sea. These waters encompass major supply chain routes with global implications. Known as “the world’s breadbasket”, a significant share of the global grain supply is shipped out of the Black Sea to the rest of the world. Understanding its importance, Moscow has enacted blockades of major ports. Specifically, reports indicate up to 300 ships have been stopped from departing the Black Sea since the beginning of the conflict. BayWa, an European agricultural company, has stated that zero grain has left Ukraine over the past weeks. Typically, the country supplies the world with 25 million tons of grain each year.
Despite the significant role the Black Sea plays in global trade and economic security, many have criticized NATO for their failure to form a unified strategy to prevent a Russian takeover. Members such as Turkey voiced hesitation towards enforcing maritime patrols citing fears of angering Russia. Judgment towards this lack of contingency is particularly harsh because it falls on the heels of Russia’s creeping militarization of the region over the past decade. Since the annexation of Crimea in 2014, the military balance in the region has tilted as the number of Russian Naval fleets has steadily increased. Conversely, NATO’s presence in the Black Sea has fluttered; the last U.S. destroyer, the USS Arliegh Burke left in December. Other nations such as the United Kingdom have not maintained a presence since last summer.
Many diplomats argue NATO’s lack of preemptive strategizing has left the United States impotent; international conventions only empower weak naval states such as Bulgaria and Romania to enforce maritime law in the region. Other potential partners such as Turkey have demonstrated a disinterest in cooperating. Such realities signify the importance of strong maritime alliances in conjunction with substantial economic sanctions by the international community.