CSIS Panel on China’s Role In Ukraine

Center for Strategic and International Studies Panel On China’s Role in Ukraine

William J. Fuschillo

March 3rd, 2022 

Panelists:

1. 1. Manoj Kewalramani 

• Senior Associate (Non-resident), Freeman Chair in China Studies

1. 1. Joint statement (Feb 4th) before invading Ukraine, gave Russia some form of security before they went ahead and invaded 
   2. Both Russia and China have a shared vision of the global order 
   3. Want a greater share of a say in global affairs 
   4. Both see force and coercion as a legitimate means to shape the global order 
   5. At the same time, China will not tolerate shifts to their national security 
   6. Russia and China have different interests in both Europe and the pacific 
      1. Different economies, will pursue different policies 
   7. China does not want a confrontation and war in Ukraine
      1. Want to continue inroads into Europe, and want to keep the developing world on their side 
      2. china ‘s ability to balance these interests will be contingent upon how much force Russia pursues this objective with 
      3. Also, a good test for China to see how Europe reacts to the current stage of escalation 
      6. Evan Medeiros 
2. • Penner Family Chair in Asia Studies and Distinguished Fellow in U.S.-China Studies, Georgetown University
   1. 1. China and russia have a global vision to counteract the united states 
      2. Also, both heavily interested in global governance 
      3. have shared economic interests such as energy connectivity and military technology sharing 
      4. Shared values of single party rule as well as combatting democracy 
      5. A coming together of interests and values 
      6. This is not a new trend or relationship 
         1. A substantial military relationship that has developed over the past 20 years
         2. Engaging in joint military activities and operations 
         3. Have agreed to share and build technology together 
      7. China is trying to balance three baskets of interests 
         1. Want to remain sympathetic to Russia 
         2. Desire to adhere to core CCP principles 
         3. Have to avoid incurring damage with European and American trading partners 
            1. Also want to maintain strong ties to the developing world 
         4. China will engage in pro russia neutrality 
            1. Will stand on principle on borders and self determination, but will blame Nato for escalating and angering Russia 
         5. Question will be how many sanctions china will be willing to absorb
            1. Never before has China been made to sacrifice for Russia, Ukraine invasion (especially if it becomes full scale conflict) can be a testing ground for the extent to which China will continue to tie itself to Russia 
      8. What can the U.S. do? 
         1. Would be very hard to pull these two countries apart 
            1. Could isolate China because of their aiding of Russia 
               1. Join with Asian countries to create a coalition to make China reassess their decision 
               2. This could of course push russia and china closer together 
         2. Could isolate Russia by minimizing the russian chinese relationship as much as possible 
            1. Will be very difficult – Same conditions do not exist as they did in 1972 when Kissinger when to Moscow 
            2. China is stronger militarily and economically, not as much antagonism between the two countries 
            3. However, could persuade China that allying with Russia possesses too much risk and could disrupt agreements in the developing world or with European trading partners